Even with a 6-5 record and clinging to playoff hopes, the Kansas City Chiefs are still among the top five favorites to win Super Bowl LXNew Orleans—a testament to their legacy, not just their current form. As of Week 12 of the 2025-26 NFL season, the Chiefs sit at +750 odds on major sportsbooks like BetMGM and Vegas Insider, tied with the Buffalo Bills for fourth place. Behind them? The Philadelphia Eagles (+650) and Baltimore Ravens (+700). It’s odd, sure. But not surprising if you’ve watched this team for the last decade.
From Top Dog to Tightrope Walker
Just two weeks ago, the Chiefs were riding high at 5-4, with Patrick Mahomes looking like the MVP frontrunner and the offense humming after wide receiver Xavier Worthy returned from injury. At one point, they were +500 favorites to win the Super Bowl. Then came Week 11: a 22-19 heartbreaker in Denver, decided by a last-second field goal. Followed by Week 12: a 23-20 overtime escape against the Indianapolis Colts, where the Chiefs were favored by 4.5 points—and barely held on. That’s two wins by a combined seven points against teams they were expected to dominate. The Chiefs are now 5-5 in games they were favored, and a dismal 5-7-0 against the spread. That’s not just inconsistent—it’s alarming.Why Bookmakers Still Believe
Here’s the twist: the betting public hasn’t abandoned them. The Chiefs rank fifth in total money wagered on Super Bowl LX futures, behind only the Bills, Eagles, Lions, and Ravens. On ticket count, they’re fourth. Why? Because experience matters. In a league where parity has never been higher—with nine teams clustered between +1000 and +1500 odds—the Chiefs are the only franchise in this group with three Super Bowl wins since 2019. Bookmakers aren’t just betting on their record. They’re betting on Mahomes’ ability to flip a switch when it matters. They’re betting on Andy Reid’s playoff magic. And they’re betting that, when the snow falls or the lights get brightest, this team still finds a way.According to Fox Sports’ proprietary computer model, the Chiefs have only a 5.9% chance of winning it all—sixth-smallest change from their preseason odds of +800. That’s a sign of resilience. But their computer ranking? 14th in the NFL. Bookmakers, meanwhile, rank them 10th. That gap tells you everything: algorithms see the missed tackles and turnover-prone drives. Humans see the playoff pedigree.
The Parity Problem
This season’s Super Bowl odds board looks like a crowded subway at rush hour. The Detroit Lions surged to +850 after a late-season win streak. The Los Angeles Rams jumped to +2200 after a late surge, while the Denver Broncos, who beat the Chiefs in Week 11, climbed from +1800 to +1300. Even the Seattle Seahawks, who opened at +6000, are now tied for fourth at +1100. Nine teams sit between +1000 and +1500. No clear favorite. No dominant force. Just chaos.That’s why the Chiefs are still in the conversation. They’re not the best team right now. But they’re the most dangerous. The kind of team that can lose to the Colts in overtime and then beat the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs with a 60-yard bomb to Rashee Rice. That’s the kind of team that doesn’t need to be perfect to win it all.
What’s Next? The Final Five Weeks
The Chiefs still have three games against teams currently above them in the AFC West: a home rematch with the Las Vegas Raiders, a critical road trip to San Diego to face the Los Angeles Chargers, and a season finale at home against the Denver Broncos. Win two of those, and they’re in. Win all three, and they could still win the division. But even if they miss the playoffs, the betting market won’t forget them. Not yet.The real test? The postseason. If they get there, can they silence the doubters? Can Mahomes, at 29, still deliver when the stakes are highest? That’s the story no odds board can predict.
Behind the Numbers: A Team of Contradictions
The Chiefs are 6-5. They’ve lost by one point twice. They’ve won by one point twice. They’re 2-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Their defense ranks 22nd in the league in yards allowed. Their offensive line has given up 28 sacks—up from 19 last year. Yet, they’re still one of the most-wagered-upon teams in the league. Why? Because when Mahomes drops back, anything can happen. And in a league where one play can change everything, that’s worth more than a winning record.Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Chiefs still top Super Bowl contenders with a losing record?
Despite their 6-5 record, the Kansas City Chiefs remain betting favorites due to their championship pedigree, elite quarterback play from Patrick Mahomes, and historical playoff success. Bookmakers value experience and clutch performance over regular-season consistency, especially when nine teams are clustered in the +1000 to +1500 range. Their odds reflect belief in their ability to elevate under pressure, not their current win-loss tally.
How do the Chiefs’ odds compare to their preseason projections?
Preseason odds had the Chiefs at +800 to win Super Bowl LX. They briefly hit +500 mid-season before settling at +750. That’s a 6.25% shift in implied probability—the sixth-smallest change in the NFL. While their record dipped, their perceived championship potential barely budged, signaling that oddsmakers still see them as a threat regardless of inconsistency.
Who are the top Super Bowl LX favorites right now?
As of Week 12, the top four Super Bowl LX favorites are: Philadelphia Eagles (+650), Baltimore Ravens (+700), and tied for fourth: Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs (+750). The Detroit Lions sit at +850, while nine other teams are grouped between +1000 and +1500, highlighting unprecedented league parity.
What does the Chiefs’ against-the-spread record say about their performance?
The Chiefs are 5-7-0 against the spread this season, meaning they’ve failed to cover the point total in seven of their 12 games—even when favored. This suggests they’re often overvalued by oddsmakers and struggle to dominate as expected. Their 50% win rate in games they were favored underscores their inconsistency, making their Super Bowl odds more about reputation than current form.
Could the Chiefs miss the playoffs entirely?
Yes. With the Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers all in tight races, the Chiefs need to win at least two of their final three games to guarantee a playoff spot. A loss to either the Broncos or Chargers could knock them out, especially if the Tennessee Titans or Houston Texans win out.
Is this the end of the Chiefs’ dynasty?
Not even close. While their 2025-26 season has been messy, the core—Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and key playmakers like Rashee Rice—remains intact. This isn’t a decline; it’s a recalibration. The NFL’s parity means even champions stumble. But Mahomes has never been eliminated in the playoffs without a chance to win it all. That’s why bettors still believe.
